The old adage “when America sneezes, the World catches a cold” will certainly be put to the test come November 4th 2008 when Americans go to the polls to elect their 44th President. In what has been dubbed the most electrifying Presidential Campaign of this century, fierce battle lines are drawn between the charismatic agent for “Change” Barack Obama and the “Maverick” war veteran John McCain in the race for the White House.
Local statistics have shown that over 90% of Jamaicans in the American Diaspora are ready to “ink” Obama as their man for the top job and to rescue them out of an imminent recession with this view understandably shared by many right here in Jamaica. While the sentiments for the Democratic Senator are at a fever pitch high, we here in Jamaica are waiting with bated breath to see the repercussions, if any, that the new President’s policy on Immigration, Foreign Relations and Trade will have on our country.
This article will highlight the Immigration, Trade and Foreign Policies of Obama and McCain with the one caveat that this article is not an attempt to endorse any of the Presidential candidates.
The Obama Panacea on Immigration, Trade and Foreign Policy
Obama has been a staunch advocate of a comprehensive Immigration Reform which will allow illegal immigrants who satisfy certain pre-requisites, the opportunity to become citizens. Undoubtedly this will work to the advantage of thousands of Jamaicans who are currently living “below the radar” on American shores to finally have their status legalised.
On the issue of trade, Obama has pledged to pursue an aggressive trade policy which he has envisaged will result in the opening of foreign markets to goods and services from the USA with the overriding interest of preserving Jobs in the USA. This policy is a two edged sword as same could possibly put Jamaican jobs at risk if policies are put in place to give incentives to US companies to keep jobs in the US, on the other hand, such a move could prove beneficial to our economy as the possibility would then exist for entering Free Trade Agreements with the US with greater access for Jamaican Goods and Services.
One specific concern on trade has to do with Jamaica’s preferential export of Ethanol under CBERA (Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act) which could be threatened as Obama is noted to be in support of protection for US’s Corn Ethanol Industry and is opposed to the importation of Sugar cane Ethanol.
A major thrust of Obama’s campaign has been in the area of tax reform where he proposes to reduce taxes for those earning less than US$ 250,000.00 per annum. It is anticipated that with this proposal, scores of Jamaicans in the USA Diaspora who earn under US$250,000.00 would be in a position to increase remittances to relatives in Jamaica, which remittances are very important to the Jamaican economy.
In the area of foreign policy, Obama’s manifesto aptly states that he intends to spearhead the cause for providing sustainable debt relief to Developing Countries. In this regard, there will be a more direct focus on 100% debt forgiveness for some of the most Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) which would include our Caribbean neighbours Guyana, Haiti and, oddly, St. Lucia. It is not clear if Jamaica does qualify as a HIPC. It is possible that under Obama’s administration, we could see some measure of debt relief being granted.
Additionally, Obama has committed himself to working towards doubling worldwide foreign assistance to US$ 50 Billion by 2012 and there is some potential for assistance to Jamaica in this regard.
An issue of concern as regards Obama’s policies is that he states that he intends to (from a foreign aid perspective) “leverage” on the billions of United States dollars in remittances made from individuals in the United States to countries worldwide (including Jamaica). It is not clear what Obama means by “Leverage” but it could be that he intends to “treat” private remittances as contributing to “foreign aid”.
Finally, Obama has commented that he is suspicious of the Offshore Banking and Companies industry in many of our Caribbean countries and which Jamaica is giving consideration to developing. How an Obama Presidency will effect the Offshore industry is presently not clear, but the Jamaican Government should perhaps take a wait and see approach to this industry.
The McCain Approach to Immigration, Trade and Foreign Policy.
Unlike his Democratic opponent who favours a comprehensive immigration regime, Senator McCain is in favour of implementing stricter immigration and border patrol measures aimed at strengthening America’s borders against illegal immigrants. There is also a secondary initiative to have undocumented immigrants register in a strict program leading to citizenship. While there are no immediate and direct benefits to illegal Jamaican immigrants in the US, it is hoped that these policies may benefit undocumented immigrants.
As it relates to trade, McCain is an ardent proponent of Free Trade and renewing efforts to establish a Free Trade Area of the Americas. He is of the view that the US should position itself to enter into a series of multilateral, regional as well a bilateral agreements to foster greater trade relationships and reduce trade barriers. Based on this approach, there is the scope for Jamaica to benefit from entering trade agreements with our US Counterparts.
Further, under a possible McCain administration, Jamaica’s preferential exports of Ethanol under CBERA would remain protected, based on the premise that McCain opposes protecting and subsidising the American farming industry.
As it relates to the area of Foreign policy, with the exception of Cuba-US relations, the Caribbean generally were not at the forefront of McCain’s vision for the US. Instead, greater focus was placed on relations with Iraq, Iran, and the other middle eastern countries.
CONCLUSIONS
In concluding, it is clear that Jamaica (and the wider Caribbean) is no longer an area of focus for United States Presidential candidates, at least when compared to the recent past.
At best, the stated policies on the Caribbean, by both Obama and McCain, are vague with very little substance. We await a clear and detailed formulation of the hemispheric policy of the new President come January 2009. One thing is certain, irrespective of the outcome of the Presidential elections next Tuesday, there will continue to be challenges and opportunities awaiting Jamaicans at home and in the American diaspora. There will be no miracle cure for Jamaica’s economic ailments and none has been promised.
Coleen T. Weise and Donovan C. Walker are Attorneys-at-Law practicing at DunnCox.
Please contact Coleen.Weise@dunncox.com with any comments.
DunnCox
Attorneys-at-Law
48 Duke Street
Kingston